Haran, Murali. 2009. An introduction to models for disease dynamics. Presentation. 68 slides.
Useful to model and understand disease dynamics because:
- Important for basic science as well as public policy.
- Models for infectious diseases are helpful for prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases like SARS, HIV/AIDS, H5N1 (“bird flu”), H1N1 (“swine flu”).
- Useful for studying the development and spread of drug resistant strains e.g. malaria, tuberculosis, MRSA.
Modeling infectious diseases: outline
We consider here models for directly transmitted, microparasitic infectious diseases.
- Discussion of some simple deterministic models.
- Discussion of simple stochastic models.
- Some simple spatial (dynamic) models.
- The discussion of statistical inference will be relatively short as there is relatively little statistical inference in this field; more time will be spent simply discussing the deterministic or stochastic models for ‘forward simulation’.
- The focus is on providing a feel for relevant models, terminology and methodology. Details are in references.
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