Intriligator, Michael D. and Dagobert L. Brito. 1988. A Predator-Prey Model of Guerrilla Warfare. Synthese. 76(2): 235-244. Special issue: Formal Analysis in International Relations.
Excerpt from Article Abstract: “The purpose of this paper is to analyze guerrilla warfare by means of a dynamic model. The model suggests specific paths for the evolution of such ward and how such wars might be fought or combatted.”
The authors present a three variable: numbers of guerrillas, numbers of regular (government) soldiers, and size of population controlled by the guerrillas, at time t), nonlinear system of three differential equations and gives a reasonable qualitative analysis whereupon conclusions about long term combat are drawn.
Policy implication are discussed as well.
There is no real data used in the paper, but the qualitative behavior relates to the size of the parameters and hence offers a sensitivity analysis of modest sorts.
There is a reasonable bibliography which refers to place in the literature in which other models of conflict are studied, e.g., Lanchester and Lotka-Volterra.
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