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Modeling Reported Cases of COVID-19 in Panama

  1. Brian Winkel

    We offer works in progress on modeling COVID-19 and attendant quantities' spread. All of the files mentioned below are available at https://www.simiode.org/resources/7480

    Here we model the number of officially recorded cases of COVID-19 in Panama.  We have postings using Mathematica notebooks and Excel spreadsheets  to consider the following for y(t) the number of officially recorded cases of COVID-19 in Panama as of day t = 1 or 9 March 2020. 

    This work on the COVID-19 is a collaborative work in progress toward eventually creating a Modeling Scenario for publication in SIMIODE.

    We do this with three models (a) y'(t) = r y(t) (K - y(t))/K or Model (2) y'(t) = (A y(t) + B) (K - y(t))/K or Model (3)  y'(t) = (A y(t)^2 + B y(t) + C) (K - y(t))/K and we track the changing values of A, B, C, and K as time goes on to see if there are an y patterns or convergence for these parameters with more and more data, in particular for K which would be the leveling off number of reported cases.

    We enclose the following resources here. All of them are about estimating the parameters of the model and comparing model with data.

    1-123-T-Mma-PanamaCoronaVirus - Teacher Version - working file in which three models are examined in both Mathematica file and pdf file.

    1-123-T-Mma-PanamaCoronaVirus-Continuous-Predictive Potential-TeacherVersion in which one of the models, Model (2), is worked on expanding time intervals to examine the nature of the changing parameters as time marches forward.  We offer both Mathematica file and pdf file.

    1-123-T-Excel-PanamaCoronaVirus-TeacherVersion.xlsx in which one of the models, Model (2) is examined closely using a difference equation model for Model (2) above.

    We invite others to create their own entries and post material either in progress seeking review or contribution or as a finished effort. Please join in and comment on what has been posted as well as adding your own work. Thank you.

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